When it comes to drafting a kicker in fantasy football, should you draft them early or late? Generally, you should draft a kicker with one of the last picks in your draft. This is because the positional scarcity and week-to-week scoring variance for kickers are lower than for other positions like quarterback, running back, or wide receiver. Who are the best fantasy kickers? The best fantasy kickers are typically those on high-powered offenses playing in dome stadiums or in good weather, with a good track record of accuracy and distance.
Let’s dive deep into the often-overlooked, yet crucial, aspect of fantasy football: the kicker position. While it might seem like a simple pick, a smart kicker selection can provide a winning edge, especially in close matchups. This guide will equip you with the knowledge to master kicker strategy fantasy football, from draft day decisions to navigating the waiver wire. We’ll explore how to identify the best fantasy kickers and delve into kicker projections fantasy, all to help you maximize your kicker value fantasy football.
The Role of the Kicker in Fantasy Football
In fantasy football, points are points, regardless of where they come from. Kickers contribute to your team’s score through successful field goals (categorized by distance) and extra points. While they might not rack up the massive point totals of a top-tier wide receiver or running back, a consistent kicker can reliably add 8-12 points per week. This seemingly small contribution can be the difference between a win and a loss in a tight contest.
Key Scoring Categories for Kickers:
- Extra Points (PATs): Typically worth 1 point. The reliability of a good offense to get into the end zone is paramount.
- Field Goals (3 points): Standard distance, usually under 40 yards.
- Field Goals (4 points): Longer distances, typically 40-49 yards.
- Field Goals (5 points): The longest kicks, 50+ yards. These are high-upside plays.
- Missed Field Goals: In some leagues, there are negative points for missed kicks, especially those that are short. This is a factor to consider when evaluating consistency.
When to Draft Your Kicker
The universal advice is to wait. Kickers are often referred to as “one-position players” because their primary role is kicking. Unlike quarterbacks, running backs, or receivers who can contribute through rushing, receiving, and even passing (in some innovative offenses), a kicker’s value is almost entirely derived from their kicking.
The Late-Round Strategy
- Positional Scarcity is Low: There are 32 starting kickers in the NFL, and most fantasy leagues only require one. This abundance means that even if you wait until the very last rounds, you’re likely to find a capable kicker.
- High Upside in Other Positions: The opportunity cost of drafting a kicker too early is significant. You’re passing up a chance to secure a high-upside running back, a proven receiver, or a quarterback with a strong arm and a good offensive line.
- Predictability of Kicker Scoring: While there’s some variance, the top kickers tend to score within a relatively close range. The difference between the #1 and #12 kicker is often only a few points per week, a margin that can be overcome by other positions.
Drafting a Kicker Fantasy: Think of it as filling out your roster after you’ve secured your core. Your primary focus should be on skill positions. The last two rounds of a standard fantasy draft are generally reserved for your kicker and defense.
Avoiding Kicker Runs
One common mistake is panicking and drafting a kicker too early if you see others doing it. This is known as a “kicker run.” Resist the urge! If all the top-tier kickers are gone, there will still be viable options available later who project similarly to those taken earlier.
Factors for Predicting Kicker Performance Fantasy
While you can’t predict the future with certainty, several factors can help in predicting kicker performance fantasy. These elements increase the likelihood of your kicker scoring points consistently.
1. Offense Strength and Consistency
The most crucial factor for a kicker’s success is the offense they play for. A strong offense will:
- Move the Ball Consistently: This leads to more opportunities for both extra points and field goals.
- Get into Scoring Position: Even if they don’t score touchdowns every time, moving into field goal range is vital.
- Have a Good Red Zone Offense (for PATs): A team that scores a lot of touchdowns will provide more extra point opportunities.
What to look for:
- High-scoring offenses: Teams that consistently put up points.
- Offenses with strong offensive lines: These lines can help protect the quarterback and open up running lanes, aiding in consistent yardage.
- Teams that utilize a balanced attack: A mix of strong passing and running games can keep defenses guessing and keep drives alive.
2. Stadium and Weather Conditions
The environment in which a kicker plays can have a significant impact.
- Dome Stadiums: Kickers playing in dome stadiums are unaffected by weather, providing a more consistent environment. This is a significant advantage, especially in colder climates or areas prone to rain.
- Outdoor Stadiums:
- Wind: Strong winds can affect both the accuracy and distance of kicks, especially longer ones.
- Rain/Snow: Wet conditions can make the ball slippery and impact kicking technique.
- Cold: Extreme cold can make the ball harder and more difficult to kick.
When evaluating: Prioritize kickers who play a majority of their games in domes or in temperate climates. If a kicker plays outdoors, consider their home stadium’s typical weather patterns.
3. Kicker Accuracy and Leg Strength
These are inherent qualities of the kicker themselves.
- Accuracy: A kicker who consistently makes their kicks, especially from 40-49 yards, will provide a steadier floor of points.
- Leg Strength: A kicker with a strong leg can make kicks from 50+ yards, offering a higher ceiling and more bonus points.
How to assess:
- Historical Data: Look at past seasons’ field goal percentages, especially from longer distances.
- Team’s Tendency to Attempt Long Field Goals: Some coaches are more aggressive with longer attempts than others.
- Draft Capital: While less common for kickers, sometimes a highly drafted kicker might have impressive physical tools.
4. Coaching Tendencies and Aggressiveness
A coach’s decision-making can directly impact a kicker’s scoring opportunities.
- Fourth-Down Decisions: Coaches who are more inclined to attempt field goals on fourth downs, especially in advantageous field position, will boost their kicker’s potential.
- Red Zone Aggression: Teams that settle for field goals rather than going for it on fourth down in the red zone will benefit their kicker.
Consider: Do coaches typically trust their kicker to make kicks in crucial situations?
Deconstructing Fantasy Football Kicker Rankings
When looking at fantasy football kicker rankings, it’s important to understand what goes into them. These rankings are not just arbitrary lists; they are built upon data and analysis of the factors we’ve discussed.
Key Components of Rankings:
- Offensive Projections: The overall scoring potential of the team the kicker plays for.
- Field Goal Attempts (FGA) Projections: Estimating how many field goals the kicker will attempt. This includes PATs and all field goal distances.
- Field Goal Percentage (FGP): The likelihood of making each attempt.
- Longest Field Goal Made: Predicting the potential for 50+ yarders.
- Venue Analysis: Weighting for dome games or favorable outdoor conditions.
Kicker Tiers Fantasy Football
To better grasp the hierarchy of kickers, consider them in tiers. This helps visualize the drop-off in potential production.
Tier 1: Elite Options
These are kickers on high-octane offenses with proven accuracy and the potential for long kicks. They are often the most reliable weekly plays. Think kickers on top NFL offenses that consistently get into field goal range.
Tier 2: Strong Starters
These kickers are on good offenses and are generally reliable. They might lack the elite leg strength of Tier 1 but are consistent scorers.
Tier 3: Solid Fill-ins
These kickers are good options if you miss out on the top tiers. They are on decent offenses but might have more variability in their scoring. They can be serviceable starters for your fantasy team.
Tier 4: Risky Plays / Deep League Options
These kickers are for deeper leagues or as potential waiver wire pickups. Their consistency is questionable, and their scoring potential is limited by their offense or their own kicking ability.
Waiver Wire Kickers Fantasy: Your Mid-Season Lifeline
Injuries, bye weeks, and unexpected slumps can force you to look for replacements on the waiver wire. Navigating waiver wire kickers fantasy requires a similar approach to draft day, focusing on current form and opportunity.
What to Look for on the Waiver Wire:
- Recent Performance: Is a kicker suddenly getting more opportunities? Have they made several long kicks recently?
- Matchups: Is the kicker facing a team with a weak defense that allows teams to get into field goal range easily?
- Offensive Momentum: Is the team the kicker plays for on an offensive hot streak?
- Kicker Injuries: Sometimes, a starter might get injured, and their replacement becomes a valuable waiver wire add.
When to Act:
- Early in the Week: If you know your starting kicker is injured or has a tough matchup, targeting a waiver wire kicker early can help you secure them before others notice.
- During the Week: Keep an eye on news and injury reports.
Kicker Strategy Fantasy Football: Beyond the Draft
Your kicker strategy fantasy football shouldn’t end on draft day. Continual evaluation and smart pickups can keep your kicker position a reliable scoring source.
Evaluating Your Kicker’s Performance
- Weekly Scoring: Track how your kicker is performing relative to their average.
- Matchup Analysis: Don’t just rely on rankings. Look at the specific weekly matchup. A top-ranked kicker might have a difficult road game against a strong defense, while a lower-ranked kicker might be at home against a porous defense.
- Team Trends: Has the offense started to stall? Are they converting more touchdowns, reducing field goal opportunities?
Streaming Kickers
For managers who want to maximize their kicker points, “streaming” kickers is a viable strategy. This involves dropping your current kicker each week and picking up the kicker with the best matchup for that particular week.
Pros of Streaming:
- Maximizes Weekly Potential: You’re always playing the kicker with the best opportunity.
- No Risk of Underperforming Starters: You avoid having your own kicker bust out for a low-scoring week.
Cons of Streaming:
- Requires Active Management: You need to be on top of weekly matchups and waiver wire activity.
- Risk of Getting the Wrong Kicker: Even with good matchups, some kickers can still underperform.
- Roster Spot Tied Up: You’re using a roster spot for a kicker who you’ll likely drop the next week.
Who Should Stream?
This strategy is best for managers in leagues with shallow benches or those who enjoy actively managing their rosters. It’s less ideal if you have a very strong kicker on a consistently high-powered offense.
The Art of Predicting Kicker Performance Fantasy
Predicting kicker performance fantasy is about more than just looking at names. It’s about understanding the ecosystem in which they operate.
Analyzing Defensive Matchups
- Red Zone Defense: Which teams are good at preventing touchdowns but allow teams to get into field goal range? These are goldmines for kickers.
- Overall Defensive Rankings: While less direct, a generally poor defense will often lead to more scoring opportunities for opposing offenses.
Volume vs. Efficiency
- High Volume, Lower Percentage: A kicker on a team that moves the ball but struggles to finish drives might get a lot of attempts, but their overall scoring could be capped by missed kicks.
- Lower Volume, Higher Percentage: A kicker on a slightly less potent offense might be highly accurate and get more long kicks, leading to boom weeks.
You need to weigh which aspect is more valuable in your league’s scoring system. If your league heavily rewards longer kicks, leg strength might be more important. If it’s a standard league, volume and consistency often win out.
Key Takeaways for Kicker Selection
- Wait to Draft: Kickers are late-round picks.
- Target High-Powered Offenses: The better the offense, the more opportunities for your kicker.
- Consider Venue: Dome stadiums offer an advantage.
- Look for Accuracy and Leg Strength: Historical data is your friend.
- Monitor the Waiver Wire: Stay active for potential upgrades or replacements.
- Stream if You’re Active: Maximize weekly potential if you have the time.
Fantasy Football Kicker Rankings: A General Outlook
While specific rankings change weekly based on matchups and performance, the general principles for identifying the best fantasy kickers remain constant. Look for:
- Top offenses: Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, Cowboys, etc.
- Accurate kickers: Those with a career field goal percentage above 80%.
- Kickers in domes or favorable weather: Justin Tucker (Ravens – outdoor, but he’s elite), Harrison Butker (Chiefs – dome), Tyler Bass (Bills – outdoor, but strong offense).
Kicker Value Fantasy Football
The true kicker value fantasy football is realized when you consistently get above-average points from your kicker without having to invest significant draft capital. If you can secure a kicker who reliably scores 10 points per week in your starting lineup, you’ve gained a distinct advantage over managers who might have drafted a kicker too early and missed out on a stronger player at another position.
Drafting a Kicker Fantasy: A Strategic Decision
When it’s your turn to draft a kicker, remember the late-round philosophy. Don’t overthink it. Identify 2-3 kickers from strong offenses who have a good track record. Pick one and move on. The real work in maximizing your kicker’s contribution comes from weekly management and understanding kicker strategy fantasy football.
Kicker Projections Fantasy: Your Crystal Ball
Utilizing kicker projections fantasy is a helpful tool, but it should be used in conjunction with your own analysis. Projections can guide you on who might have a good week, but they are not infallible. Always cross-reference projections with the latest news and matchup data.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q1: Should I draft a kicker in a dynasty league?
A1: In dynasty leagues, the strategy for kickers is often similar to redraft leagues, though some owners may opt to not draft a kicker at all, preferring to fill out their roster with developmental players with higher potential upside. If you do draft a kicker in dynasty, it’s usually a very late pick.
Q2: What if my kicker is on bye?
A2: You will need to find a replacement kicker for that week. This is where waiver wire strategy or having a backup kicker on your bench comes into play. Streaming is a common approach to cover bye weeks.
Q3: How do I handle a kicker who is consistently missing kicks?
A3: If your kicker is underperforming significantly and consistently missing key kicks, it’s time to look at the waiver wire. Even if they are a “name brand” kicker, their poor performance can hurt your team more than the potential upside of a lesser-known kicker in a better situation.
Q4: Are there any kickers who are “must-starts” regardless of matchup?
A4: While no player is truly matchup-proof, kickers like Justin Tucker (Baltimore Ravens) have historically been so elite in terms of accuracy and distance that they can often be started with confidence even in tougher matchups. However, even these elite kickers benefit from good matchups.
Q5: How important is kicker scoring fantasy football compared to other positions?
A5: Kicker scoring fantasy football is less impactful than skill positions (QB, RB, WR, TE) but still significant enough to matter in close games. A reliable kicker can provide a consistent point floor that helps you win weekly matchups. They are not a position to ignore, but they are also not a position to overvalue early in the draft.